Choosing parameters/model for stock data prediction.




Using information about volume

So far we used only closing price. However typical log of stock prices has data about closing prices, volume, open, high and low prices. This is additional information that can be used for prediction also. In this section we will investigate how volume information can improve the forecast. We will use the same model as in last time but now for input in addition to closing prices will be also use volume info. There are several ways how we can input volume information. We will try volume difference, volume itself, log of volume. Also we will try different scaling factors for volume. The results are shown in the table below.

INPUT SCALE (for volume) Cum. Error for all 35 points
1_AStock prices differenceN/A 3.518
2_APrice difference AND Volume Difference 0.4 3.362
2_BPrice difference AND Volume Difference 0.1 3.35
3_APrice difference AND Volume 0.1 3.648
3_BPrice difference AND Volume 0.05 2.986
3_CPrice difference AND Volume 0.02 3.092
4_APrice difference AND Volume Log 0.1 2.853
4_BPrice difference AND Volume Log 0.05 3.155

Lead 0-4 for prices
Lead 0-9 for volume
High Filter 0.11 0.01
Low Filter 0.1 0.01
"Error is calculated as SUM(act-predicted)**2 where act, predicted are price differences"
We see that using volume improved prdiction from 3.518 to 2.853 (19%).

Looking at weekly errors we see that our best type is not always the best. On some weeks another models outperform it. If we could switch to the one that is currently doing better we could improve even more our prediction. Obviously we need the way to know how to pick it. This leads to idea of making adaptive system that could evaluate performance and switch to the best model.



1_A2_A2_B 3_A3_B3_C4_A4_B
0.8830.640.730.720.660.80.70.8
0.4970.580.490.440.40.460.440.44
0.5950.630.670.650.750.630.620.64
0.6050.330.410.380.420.470.370.48
0.2980.290.250.340.280.240.280.31
0.5690.750.710.990.440.40.410.41
0.0710.150.10.140.030.10.030.07
3.5183.373.363.662.983.12.853.15

  Thus choosing parameters or model for stock data prediction can improve significantly results of forecasting.

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